Research notes
Ongoing work on Polymarket bots, BTC five-minute markets, backtest reality, risk and automated execution.
Polymarket Bot Backtesting: What Does a 63.75% Win Rate Actually Mean?
A deeper look at Polymarket bot backtesting through 18,633 historical signals: win rate, payoff structure, STOPs, drawdown, losing streaks, overfitting, and the gap between replay and live trading.
How a Polymarket BTC 5-Minute Bot Actually Works: From Signal to Automated Execution
A full, strategy-safe walkthrough of a Polymarket BTC 5-minute bot: market discovery, data continuity, signals, regime context, no-trade decisions, sizing, risk and execution.
Why a Polymarket Trading Bot Must Learn Not to Trade
A Polymarket bot should not only choose Up or Down. Using 348 public historical STOP events, this article explains why NO TRADE, regime filters, and candidate rejection belong inside the strategy.
No Look-Ahead Isn't Enough: The Other Side of Polymarket Bot Overfitting
A Polymarket bot can avoid future-data leakage and still overfit. This article separates causal replay from research overfitting and explains time splits, rule selection, parameter neighborhoods, and rejected hypotheses.
A New Rule Looked Great Recently. Why I Still Rejected It.
One of the most dangerous moments in Polymarket bot research is when a new rule perfectly fixes recent losses. This is how we test whether a candidate is real—or just a clean explanation of known history.
A Good Backtest Is Not Enough: Why Production Code Must Reproduce It Trade by Trade
Matching total PnL is not enough for a Polymarket trading bot. This article explains why we validate per-event timing, direction, STOP decisions, state, and unchanged historical regions.
Polymarket BTC 5m Is Not a Binance Candle: Why Resolution Sources Matter
Many BTC 5-minute strategies use Binance data for research, but Polymarket resolves markets under its own rules. This article explains Chainlink, TWAP, label definition, and backtest mismatch.
61 Positive Monthly Scores — Why I Still Won't Call It “61 Profitable Months”
How should monthly stability be interpreted in a Polymarket bot backtest? This article separates standardized monthly score, live profit, sample distribution, and research overfitting.
Why Do So Many Polymarket Bot Strategies Die in Live Trading? Three Public Failure Patterns
Public Polymarket bot research logs reveal recurring strategy failures: confusing high probability with edge, paper fills that cannot execute, and repeated parameter tuning that fits known history.