Polymarket bot research, not a profit showcase.
Research notes from BTC 5-minute markets: why a strategy earns trust, why a rule gets rejected, and what still separates a backtest from a live trade.
Publish the research process, not the strategy recipe.
* Published historical replay snapshot, 2026-09-01. Standardized research evidence, not realized return.
A direction is a candidate, not an order.
02 / VALIDATIONNo look-ahead does not automatically mean no overfitting.
03 / EXECUTIONA correct historical direction may still be untradeable at the real price.
Recent work
Polymarket Bot Backtesting: What Does a 63.75% Win Rate Actually Mean?
A deeper look at Polymarket bot backtesting through 18,633 historical signals: win rate, payoff structure, STOPs, drawdown, losing streaks, overfitting, and the gap between replay and live trading.
How a Polymarket BTC 5-Minute Bot Actually Works: From Signal to Automated Execution
A full, strategy-safe walkthrough of a Polymarket BTC 5-minute bot: market discovery, data continuity, signals, regime context, no-trade decisions, sizing, risk and execution.
Read →Why a Polymarket Trading Bot Must Learn Not to Trade
A Polymarket bot should not only choose Up or Down. Using 348 public historical STOP events, this article explains why NO TRADE, regime filters, and candidate rejection belong inside the strategy.
Read →No Look-Ahead Isn't Enough: The Other Side of Polymarket Bot Overfitting
A Polymarket bot can avoid future-data leakage and still overfit. This article separates causal replay from research overfitting and explains time splits, rule selection, parameter neighborhoods, and rejected hypotheses.
Read →A New Rule Looked Great Recently. Why I Still Rejected It.
One of the most dangerous moments in Polymarket bot research is when a new rule perfectly fixes recent losses. This is how we test whether a candidate is real—or just a clean explanation of known history.
Read →A Good Backtest Is Not Enough: Why Production Code Must Reproduce It Trade by Trade
Matching total PnL is not enough for a Polymarket trading bot. This article explains why we validate per-event timing, direction, STOP decisions, state, and unchanged historical regions.
Read →Polymarket BTC 5m Bot
An automated trading system for Polymarket BTC 5-minute Up / Down markets. High-level research methods, historical replay and risk boundaries are public; strategy-reconstructing formulas and parameters remain private.
Questions we care about
Attractive numbers can be public, but their limitations should be public too.
Causality ≠ Independence
Chronological correctness prevents look-ahead; it does not erase research selection.
02Research ≠ Production
Matching totals can hide different event-level decisions, so production needs direct replay comparison.
03Price Data ≠ Resolution
A strategy feed and the market's official resolution definition are not the same object.
04Improvement ≠ Ship
A rule that looks good recently can still fail broader acceptance tests.
This site is for technical research, education and information only. Historical, backtested or simulated results do not guarantee future performance.