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Existing research organized into four themes. Original articles and URLs remain intact; find an answer by topic instead of publication date.
01 / topic
Polymarket Markets & Data
Understand BTC five-minute markets, settlement references, order books, and data differences.
↗02 / topicBacktesting, Risk & Execution
Explore win rates, entry prices, overfitting, stability, and live execution gaps.
↗03 / topicTrading Automation & Engineering
From signals to execution, deployment, updating, recovery, and debugging.
↗04 / topicSeparate BTC Futures Research
Separate research on Binance signals, OKX execution, leverage and risk; not the Polymarket strategy.
↗01 / Topic
Polymarket Markets & Data
Understand BTC five-minute markets, settlement references, order books, and data differences.
Suggested reading path
All articles in this topic
Polymarket BTC 5m Is Not a Binance Candle: Why Resolution Sources MatterWhy Chainlink Makes Polymarket BTC 5-Minute Bots Harder to ResearchPolymarket Bot Research: Can Binance–TWAP60 Divergence Predict the Next BTC 5-Minute Direction?Polymarket BTC 5m Research: Can a Binance-Derived TWAP60 Be Reliable Enough for Historical Research?Why We Archived Five Years of BTC 1-Second Data for Polymarket ResearchWhy Does the Polymarket Order Book Suddenly Jump? BTC, TWAP, and Execution Timing
02 / Topic
Backtesting, Risk & Execution
Explore win rates, entry prices, overfitting, stability, and live execution gaps.
Suggested reading path
Browse by research question
Historical Stability & Samples
Why Do So Many Polymarket Bot Strategies Die in Live Trading? Three Public Failure Patterns ↗61 Positive Monthly Scores — Why I Still Won't Call It “61 Profitable Months” ↗Polymarket Bot Five-Year Replay: What Happened After Execution Coverage Expanded Nearly 8×? ↗61 Positive Months — Why We Still Weren’t Satisfied With This Polymarket Bot Strategy ↗619 More Trades, Yet a Smaller Drawdown: What Does That Tell Us? ↗64 Positive Monthly Scores, Yet a Weak Recent Week: How to Read Both ↗
Backtest Methods & Production Replay
No Look-Ahead Isn't Enough: The Other Side of Polymarket Bot Overfitting ↗A Good Backtest Is Not Enough: Why Production Code Must Reproduce It Trade by Trade ↗Nearly 80% for Two Days—What Happened Over Five Years? ↗A New Rule Looked Great Recently. Why I Still Rejected It. ↗How Do You Know a Trading Bot Upgrade Is Actually Better? ↗
Entry Prices & Execution Timing
Polymarket Bot Backtesting: What Does a 63.75% Win Rate Actually Mean? ↗Does a High Polymarket Bot Win Rate Guarantee Profit? Entry Price Matters ↗Polymarket Bot Execution Research: Why Does Entry Get More Expensive Near Market Open? ↗Should a Polymarket Bot Have Only One Entry Time? ↗Why You Can’t Just Run a Polymarket Bot Strategy Earlier ↗
All articles in this topic
Why Do So Many Polymarket Bot Strategies Die in Live Trading? Three Public Failure Patterns61 Positive Monthly Scores — Why I Still Won't Call It “61 Profitable Months”A Good Backtest Is Not Enough: Why Production Code Must Reproduce It Trade by TradeA New Rule Looked Great Recently. Why I Still Rejected It.No Look-Ahead Isn't Enough: The Other Side of Polymarket Bot OverfittingWhy a Polymarket Trading Bot Must Learn Not to TradePolymarket Bot Backtesting: What Does a 63.75% Win Rate Actually Mean?Polymarket BTC 5-Minute Trading Bot Research: Why Strategy Stability Matters More Than Win RatePolymarket Bot Five-Year Replay: What Happened After Execution Coverage Expanded Nearly 8×?Should a Polymarket Bot Have Only One Entry Time?Polymarket Bot Execution Research: Why Does Entry Get More Expensive Near Market Open?Nearly 80% for Two Days—What Happened Over Five Years?Does a High Polymarket Bot Win Rate Guarantee Profit? Entry Price MattersWhy You Can’t Just Run a Polymarket Bot Strategy Earlier61 Positive Months — Why We Still Weren’t Satisfied With This Polymarket Bot StrategyHow Do You Know a Trading Bot Upgrade Is Actually Better?619 More Trades, Yet a Smaller Drawdown: What Does That Tell Us?64 Positive Monthly Scores, Yet a Weak Recent Week: How to Read Both
03 / Topic
Trading Automation & Engineering
From signals to execution, deployment, updating, recovery, and debugging.
Suggested reading path
All articles in this topic
How a Polymarket BTC 5-Minute Bot Actually Works: From Signal to Automated ExecutionFrom a Trading Bot to a Maintainable Trading SystemRandom SIGSEGV After Nuitka Compilation: Tracing a Python 3.11+ Frame Use-After-FreeMore Trading Rules, Fewer Layers: Why I Simplified the Decision ArchitectureWhat Must Not Change During a Trading Bot Upgrade? Production Replay InvariantsOne Missing Data Dependency Should Not Break Every Trading Decision
04 / Topic
Separate BTC Futures Research
Separate research on Binance signals, OKX execution, leverage and risk; not the Polymarket strategy.
Suggested reading path
All articles in this topic
Why the Same BTC Strategy Behaves Differently on Binance and OKXHigh Leverage Is Not Just Multiplying Position Size by 10A Futures Trading Bot Is Not Just a Signal StrategyWhy I Use Binance for BTC Signals and OKX for ExecutionWhy I Abandoned a Risk-Control Method That Made the Equity Curve SmootherWhy I Rejected a Strategy Change That Made the Backtest More Profitable